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U.S. heat pump shipments stayed strong during the first half of 2026, despite the end of the federal tax credit that offered households up to $2,000 toward installation. A Building Decarbonization Coalition report says the technology is on track to match or exceed its strongest year, though full-year shipment figures are not yet available.
U.S. heat pump shipments stayed strong in the first half of 2026, months after a federal tax credit worth up to $2,000 expired, according to a recent report from the Building Decarbonization Coalition. The nonprofit said shipments put the industry on course to match or exceed its best year, but the final 2026 total is not yet known.
The coalition’s report draws on shipment data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, a trade group representing most of the U.S. market. The figures track products shipped, not necessarily the number installed in homes or the number of households choosing heat pumps. The report’s first-half findings indicate continued strength after the policy change, but do not establish why demand held up.
The federal 25C tax credit had lowered the cost of eligible heat pumps by as much as $2,000. It expired at the end of 2025, seven years ahead of the deadline set under the Biden administration, according to the source report. The credit’s expiration was part of a broader rollback of federal support for household clean-energy technologies, including rooftop solar and batteries.
The shipment trend challenges the expectation that ending the credit would quickly weaken the market. It does not, by itself, show that the policy change had no effect: shipments could reflect orders, contractor activity, or other market conditions, and the available figures cover only the first half of the year.
Demand After the Tax Credit
The figures matter to households, installers and policymakers because they offer an early test of how the heat pump market is responding to the loss of a federal incentive. A credit can reduce a household’s upfront cost, but shipments staying strong suggests that other factors may also be supporting sales. The data do not identify which factors are most influential, or how demand would have looked if the credit had remained in place.
Heat pumps can provide both heating and cooling, and can reduce reliance on gas furnaces in buildings that switch from fossil-fuel heating. Continued shipments could support businesses that sell and install the equipment. But shipment totals alone do not establish household savings, emissions reductions or installation rates; those outcomes depend on what equipment is installed and how it is used.
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What Supported the Market
Heat pump uptake varies across the United States. UC Berkeley business professor Lucas Davis has argued that local conditions such as geography, climate and electricity prices may shape adoption more than subsidies do. In a blog post cited by Canary Media, Davis said many households may not have known about the tax credit when they decided to install a heat pump, or may have learned about it later while filing taxes.
Contractors have also told the trade publication ACHR News that they often introduced the tax credit to customers, rather than customers asking about it first. That account is consistent with the possibility that the credit was not the main reason for every purchase, but it is not a nationwide measure of buyer motivations.
Some households can still draw on state and utility incentives, while local policies in some areas encourage replacing fossil-fuel heating. The source report also points to contractors’ increased familiarity with heat pumps. These factors may help explain resilience, but the shipment data cited do not quantify their separate effects.
“I suspect most households adopted heat pumps without ever knowing anything about the credit, or didn’t learn about the tax credit until months later when filing their taxes.”
— Lucas Davis, University of California, Berkeley business professor, as quoted in his blog post
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What the Shipment Figures Cannot Show
The available report covers the first half of 2026; it does not provide a final annual total. It is therefore not yet possible to confirm whether shipments for the full year will match or exceed the industry’s best year. The source material also does not state the exact shipment totals or a comparison baseline, so the scale of the year-over-year change cannot be assessed here.
Shipment data cannot show how many units reached homes, whether installations rose by the same amount, or how much the expired credit affected individual purchasing decisions. The source material does not quantify the contribution of state and utility incentives, local rules, contractor experience, or other market conditions. Those questions remain open.
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Full-Year Data Will Test the Forecast
The key next milestone is the final 2026 shipment tally, which will show whether the strong first-half pace continued through the rest of the year. Until then, the projection that heat pumps could match or exceed their best year remains a forecast, not a confirmed result.
Later figures will be more informative if they include annual totals and a clear comparison with prior years. Separate data on installations, prices and incentive use would help explain how the market performed after the federal credit ended. For now, the evidence supports a narrow conclusion: shipments held up in the first half, while the reasons and full-year outcome remain uncertain.
heat pump with heating and cooling
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Key Questions
What happened to the federal heat pump tax credit?
The federal 25C credit expired at the end of 2025. It had reduced eligible heat pump costs by up to $2,000, according to the source report.
Did heat pump shipments fall after the credit ended?
The Building Decarbonization Coalition’s report says shipments remained strong in the first half of 2026. The source material does not give exact shipment totals or establish how shipments would have compared if the credit had continued.
Does strong shipment data mean heat pump installations rose?
Not necessarily. Shipment figures count equipment sent into the market; they do not directly show how many units were installed in homes or when installations occurred.
Why might demand have held up without the federal credit?
Possible factors cited in the report include local climate and electricity prices, remaining state or utility incentives, local policies, and contractors’ greater familiarity with heat pumps. The available data do not measure the effect of each factor.
Is 2026 certain to be a record year for heat pumps?
No. The report says the technology is on track to match or exceed its best year, based on first-half shipments. The full-year result is still pending.
Source: rss
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